Bitcoin's fourth halving, which reduced the block subsidy from 3.125 BTC to 1.5625 BTC, occurred approximately six months ago. If history rhymes — and on-chain analysts argue it does, at least in structure — the current period corresponds to the early expansion phase of the post-halving cycle.
MVRV Ratio
The Market Value to Realized Value ratio, which compares Bitcoin's current market cap to the aggregate cost basis of all BTC in circulation, currently reads 2.4. Historically, cycle peaks have occurred when MVRV reaches 3.5 to 4.5. A reading of 2.4 suggests significant headroom before over-extension.
SOPR — Short-Term Holder Behaviour
The Spent Output Profit Ratio for short-term holders (those who acquired BTC within the last 155 days) has been above 1.0 for the past 60 days. This means recent buyers are selling into profit without panic — a structurally healthy sign, distinct from the exuberant profit-taking that preceded the 2021 top.
On-chain signals are the most honest data we have in this market. They do not have an agenda. Right now, they are saying: this cycle has further to run.
— Will Clement, Glassnode Analyst
The Reserve Risk metric, which measures long-term holder conviction against the current market price, is still in the green zone. In past cycles, Reserve Risk entered the orange zone approximately four to six months before peak prices. We are not there yet.
None of this constitutes a guarantee. On-chain data describes what the network is doing, not what it will do. But for investors seeking a framework for thinking about cycle positioning, the aggregate signals currently available are more constructive than at any point in the past two years.